Thursday, January 29, 2009

Disaster Averted - Looking Back at a Possible Matt Holliday Trade

The first big name to pop up on team's trade radars this winter was former Colorado Rockies' OF Matt Holliday. Among the teams involved in the Holliday sweepstakes were the Oakland A's, who wound up the winner, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals.

Before I really delve deep into this topic, I'd like to thank Cardinals GM John Mozeliak for at least pursuing Holliday. It is nice to know that he put in a lot of effort in trying to get one of the better players in baseball. He didn't get his man, but as I will soon point out, that is probably a very good thing.

Let's first take a look at what the Oakland A's gave up to acquire one certain year of Matt Holliday:
-Carlos Gonzalez: Potential middle of the order hitter and top prospect. Big name going to Oakland in the Dan Haren trade.
-Greg Smith: Solid #3-4 major league starter, also a big part of the Dan Haren deal.
-Huston Street: Decent closer who had a rough 2008 season blowing more than a few saves. Overall, though, his numbers weren't bad at all.

The Athletics gave up a ton and the Rockies got exactly what they wanted. Gonzalez and Smith are under the Rockies' control for 6 and 5 more years, respectively. Street has 2 more years of arbitration and acquiring him allowed the Rockies to let Brian Fuentes go for 2 draft picks.

Billy Beane pretty much pulled the opposite of every trade he has ever made by giving up 3 good young players for 1 year of a superstar.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals and Rockies were discussing a deal that would have sent Holliday to the Cardinals for Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker and Mitchell Boggs.
Compared to what Oakland gave up, that isn't a tough deal to swallow and I wouldn't be surprised if Schumaker wasn't in the final discussion and Chris Perez was but that is neither here nor there.

There are two reasons why the Cardinals just missed disaster with this trade:
1)Giving up 3 cheaper years of Ludwick, 4 of Schumaker and 6 of Boggs
2)Future contract extension for Matt Holliday

I really don't want to mention the fact that Holliday isn't an elite hitter away from Coors Field because Ryan Ludwick has his question marks too as he's been a one year wonder up to this point. It is up to one's opinion on how good he'll be next season.

For the sake of fair discussion I'll take the middle ground and say both are the same hitters next year as they were this year. Although I think the only reason why Mozeliak was strongly considering this was because he wasn't as certain about Ludwick's future. But I can't predict a serious regression for Ludwick in 2009 because there isn't overwhelming support to back the notion up.

Anyways(I feel like I'm talking too much), the main point of this post was to look at Matt Holliday's future contract extension.

I want to use a comparable player to Holliday to help us predict a future contract for the slugger. See if you can guess who's 162 game average season this is:
.290/.378/.552, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 79 BB, 122 K, 2 SB, 40 2B, 2 3B

If you guessed Mark Teixeira, you'd be right.

Now compare it to Holliday's average 162 game season:
.319/.386/.552, 30 HR, 112 RBI, 58 BB, 117 K, 15 SB, 44 2B, 5 3B

Not far off.

Texeira recently signed an 8 year, 180 million contract with the New York Yankees.

I'd have to imagine that if Holliday has a strong 2009 season, he'll want a comparable contract to what Texeira signed. For some teams that isn't a big negative. For the Cardinals, it is.

Almost every Cardinal fan's biggest fear is the day Albert Pujols puts on another team's uniform. With Matt Holliday making 20 million a year, it isn't difficult to see the Cardinals struggling to re-sign Pujols.

Could the Cardinals afford to have both a 7-8 year, 150-170 million contract for Holliday and a 8-9 year, 180-200 million contract for Pujols on the books?
Also consider Adam Wainwright will be making 10-12 million in 2011 and 2012 and becoming a free agent after 2013. You're talking about 50-55 million locked up in the three players in 2014.
60-65 million in 4 players when you consider Kyle Lohse's new contract although that'd be just for 2012 as Lohse is a free agent after that season.
Add in Holliday's 20 million into the 2010 and 2011 payrolls and you're talking about 51 million or so for him, Pujols and Carpenter.

Signing Holliday to the extension he is going to be asking for, and probably recieving if he gets to free agency, will severely handcuff the Cardinals in future years if their farm system doesn't produce like we hope it will.
Even if it does produce several good players, Bill DeWitt would have to bump his payroll up to around 120 million for the team to have some breathing room.

Perhaps losing Pujols wouldn't be so tough to swallow with Holliday and possible 1st base replacement Brett Wallace on the team but I doubt it. There isn't a player like Pujols in the game today and losing him would be a huge blow to the Cardinals.

Braden Looper is the Answer

When most people discuss the potential of the 2009 Cardinals, much of the talk revolves around what will transpire in the starting rotation.

Taking a look at the Cardinals projected 2009 rotation...

1: Adam Wainwright
2: Kyle Lohse
3: Todd Wellemeyer
4: Joel Pineiro
5: Chris Carpenter

...I see some uncertainty at the back end.

You have Joel Pineiro in the 4th spot and no one is really sure what he'll give you. He's not an awful pitcher. Sometimes(often times), though, he doesn't bring his best stuff to the park with him. I don't think he is a terrible 5th starter but he isn't going to be a difference maker in most of his starts.
In the 5th spot, and really he'd be the ace IF he is healthy, is Chris Carpenter. Right now, the medical reports all look good. Of course we've heard that numerous times before only to see a recovering player suffer a serious setback. There are two things that could happen this year:
1) Carpenter stays healthy, pitches like he did last year, which is to say great, and gives the Cardinals anywhere from 15 to 20 wins and a great shot to win the Central division.

or

2) Carpenter gets hurt in Spring Training, makes anywhere from 0 to 7 starts in 2009 and the Cardinals rely on Mitch Boggs/Kyle McClellan/Jess Todd/etc to fill in behind Joel Pineiro.

100% of Cardinal fans are hoping for option 1. And really if you are a baseball fan, you should be hoping for option 1 as well. Watching a healthy Chris Carpenter pitch is a treat. He is one of the best pitchers in the game today.

Unfortunately, option 2 could be more likely to happen. It has been two years since Carp made it through a full season and he has had both elbow and unprecedented shoulder problems in those two years.
If you are the Cardinals, I don't understand why you wouldn't want to guard against option 2 to an extent. Obviously the only way to fully guard against it would be to acquire Jake Peavy and the Cardinals just DON'T need to do that. But why not get a guy who you can slot into the 4th/5th spot and get 180+ innings of quality pitching?

This is where Braden Looper comes in.

Not many pitchers improved more than Looper did over the past two seasons:
2007: 12-12, 4.94 ERA, 175 INN, 183 H, 51 BB, 87 K, 89 ERA+
2008: 12-14, 4.12 ERA, 199 INN, 216 H, 45 BB, 108 K, 102 ERA+

One of Looper's underrated strengths is his dominance against the Chicago Cubs as a starter:
2-4, 2.42 ERA, 52 INN, 46 H, 14 ER, 13 BB, 35 K, 8 starts

No team has given the Cardinals more fits lately than the Cubs, who currently projects to be the top team in the Central division. Looper's record against the Cubs is less than spectacular but that is more on the bullpen and offense than Looper. Having a guy that can pitch 3-4 strong games against the Cubs is a huge plus.

The only downside to signing Looper is that if Carpenter and everyone else does stay healthy then the Cardinals will have to almost bite the bullet on Joel Pineiro's 7.5 million by sending him to the bullpen to be a long reliever.
Some might consider good rotation depth to be a strength, though.

Management has consistently said that the payroll should be right around 100 million and that they don't want to pour more money into the rotation. But I just don't understand where else they are going to spend the extra 10 million or so that is available.
They won't eat Kennedy's contract which would open up the possibility of Orlando Hudson signing in St. Louis. All of the closers are off the board and the Cardinals have already signed 3 lefty relievers. Strengthening the rotation is pretty much the only option left.

I strongly believe John Mozeliak knows that the Cardinals rotation could be a serious mess before the season even starts and I believe he has Looper's number on his speed dial. I just wish he'd call him now while the Cardinals have the upper hand in potential contract negotiations instead of when they desperately need his services.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Leaving the Nest

Congratulations on finding this blog devoted to the St. Louis Cardinals. You are one of the lucky ones.

Within this blog we will discuss anything dealing with the Cardinals both at the major league and minor league levels.