Monday, March 30, 2009

Luis Perdomo Update

The AA/AAA reliever the Cardinals lost to San Francisco in the Rule V draft had a rough outing today in a game he *might* have had to pitch well in.
His line:0.2 INN, 3 H, 1 R, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR

Overall this spring, though, he has been very good:
4.09 ERA, 11 INN, 11 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 10 K, 3 for 4 in saves

Right now, the Giants pen is looking like it will consist of:
-Jeremy Affeldt
-Brian Wilson
-Brandon Medders
-Bob Howry
-Justin Miller

That leaves 2 spots open. One likely for another lefty(Alex Hinshaw) and another for a righty, quite possibly Perdomo.
Osiris Matos and Merkin Valdez(injured) seem to be Perdomo's competition. I thought I read somewhere that Matos could be hurt as well which means Perdomo will probably make the team. Otherwise, it'll come down to the last day.

We can talk all day about how not protecting Perdomo and instead protecting Scherer might have been a very poor move but if the Cardinals can get him back, I'll be excited.
Perdomo has pitched extremely well for a guy with zero AAA experience and very little AA experience. He could turn into a very good late inning reliever or good trade bait for the Cardinals. We've seen the value of relief prospects shoot up of late with the Kevin Gregg, Mark DeRosa and Khalil Greene deals.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Interview with Jon Jay

In 2006, the St. Louis Cardinals decided to take a chance on a Miami Hurricane outfielder in the 2nd round of the First-Year Player Draft. Since that time, that man has gone onto hit .308 with an .820 OPS in 894 minor league at-bats.
He has risen all the way to AAA Memphis and can almost smell Busch Stadium. His desire to be a big league Redbird cannot grow to a higher level. But before he could even think about taking that final step to the majors, Jon Jay had to answer a few of my questions.

-How is the spring going so far? The numbers suggest you are feeling pretty comfortable at the plate.
Jay: Spring training is going well. I'm just trying to work hard and learn as much as I can. I've felt good at the plate and I'm just trying to keep things simple and try to execute the situation.

-You were hampered by shoulder problems in 2007 and 2008, not to mention a wrist problem in 07. How are you feeling going into 2009?
Jay: I've had some health issues the last couple of years but I'm feeling good now and hopefully those problems won't arise again.

-Was strengthening your shoulder a top priority in your offseason workouts?
Jay: I spent a lot of time working on my shoulder making sure that I got it in shape which has been working so far.

-Is it discouraging to look at the depth chart and see the big league outfield is stocked with quality players or just tell yourself to keep playing the game hard and you’ll get there soon enough?
Jay: I know we have a lot of guys on our depth chart but I can't control those things. I just have to continue working hard and just be ready for what happens.

-What is one thing that you need to improve this season?
Jay: For this season I'm just working on tightening up my game and just trying to learn from the coaches.

-I’m sure you can handle all 3 outfield spots but which position are you most comfortable playing?
Jay: I feel the most comfortable in CF. It's the position I grew up playing. I've gotten used to playing RF and LF, though.

-Which major leaguer would you compare yourself to?
Jay: I don't know who I really can compare myself to in the big leagues.

-Who is the toughest pitcher you’ve faced in the minors?
Jay: I've faced some good pitchers in the minors. I think the best guy I've faced might be Franklin Morales from the Rockies.

-You didn't really have much trouble making the transition from AA to AAA. Did you notice much of a difference in the pitching?
Jay: There is definately a difference between double A pitching and triple A pitching. You just have to make adjustments quicker.

-If you weren’t playing baseball for a living what would you be doing?
Jay: If I wasn't playing baseball I would probably be involved in the financial world.

I would like to thank Jon Jay for answering these questions and wish him the best of luck in what will hopefully be a successful and injury free 2009 season.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Behold the Power

Despite the fact that Mr. Cheapskate decided to spend very little of his precious money on improving the offense(outside of adding Spicoli and his .210 average), I'm excited about the potential that exists in the Cardinal lineup. Particularly the power potential. And yes, I was joking about DeWitt. He's a good man that knows what he's doing.

There may not be a team in baseball with more power than the Cardinals. There are a lot of question marks surrounding that power but the potential is there.

You've got:
-Albert Pujols hitting anywhere from 35-45 home runs a year. It is a given unless injury strikes(knocking on every piece of wood I can find).

-Ryan Ludwick coming off a year in which he hit 37 bombs. Who knows what 2009 has in store for Ryan as he could either fall back to Earth or prove that he's for real. But we at least know he has plus major league power potential and could hit 30 home runs this year. Hopefully having Pujols near him in the lineup continues to help him. Most remember Ludwick struggling in late June when Albert missed 2 weeks with injury. Once the Mang returned so did Luddy.

-Troy Glaus who hit 3 home runs in the first two months of last season combined and still wound up with 27 home runs. Even though he's going to be missing April, Troy could still be good for close to 30 HRs this year if he gets into a groove soon after returning. Of course it would be really nice to see him hit around .270 again and keep the strikeouts down as well.

-Rick Ankiel hitting 36 homers in 585 ABs these past two years. I'm praying so hard that Rick can stay healthy this year. If he does it probably means his time in a Redbird uniform will come to an end as he'll be getting rich over the winter. But it also means big production in the middle of the order. I would also like to add that I believe Ankiel is an underrated hitter. He hit .285 in his position player debut in 2007 and was hitting .282 until he started playing through hernia problems near the end of last season. A .280, 35 HR season could be in Rick's future if he just stays healthy. I can't wait.

-Chris Duncan finally back to full health and feeling good. He hit 20+ HRs in a platoon role in 2006 and 2007. In my opinion, it is close to a given that lil Dunc could hit 30 HRs if he's feeling healthy and getting 500 ABs. Now in the Cardinal lineup he won't get that many at bats but at least in the past he has been able to handle platooning well. So like with everyone else, it is just a matter of staying healthy, feeling good and the numbers will be good. His numbers early on in spring training are encouraging.

-Joe Mather with the nickname "Joey Bombs." In just 133 at bats last year Mather was able to slug 8 home runs. Then go down to the AAA level and he hit 17 home runs in 211 at bats. Geez Joe, did you take all of Popeye's spinach? We talk all the time about how nice it would be to see Skip Schumake make a somewhat smooth transition to 2B, but how nice would it be to see Joe Mather make a somewhat smooth transition to 3B to fill in for Glaus? My big concern about Mather in 2009 is hitting or laying off the breaking ball away. If he can handle those we could see a good numbers across the board from Mather this year.

-Khalil Greene exiting the power zapping Petco Park where he has actually been able to put up solid power numbers. It wasn't too long ago that Greene hit 27 home runs in his only full big league season. Even in an absolutely terrible year in 2008 he hit 10 home runs in 389 at bats. So Greene certainly has plus power for a shortstop and he will provide plus power from the bottom of the order. The big question is can he raise the average, increase the walk totals and cut down on the strikeouts a little? We shall see.

-Colby Rasmus probably hitting 74 homers this year. Alright maybe not that many but I think if Rasmus is given consistent playing time he'll hit his fair share of round-trippers. Considering that he will likely either hit 1st, 2nd or 9th in the Cardinals lineup, if he makes the team, his power would be a plus. However, I don't know how likely it is that he will make the team out of spring training. It is certainly more possible with Mather and Schumaker playing the infield but you've still got three hitters in the outfield that hit better against righties. Plus Mather returns to the outfield in May and he could be very deserving of playing time. Perhaps Duncan is dealt during the year if he is hitting well and a platoon of Rasmus and Mather emerges in LF. Who knows? What we do know is that Colby hit 29 homers in AA at the age of 20 and most scouts project good home run totals from him in the future.

There could certainly be a lot of strikeouts and .240-.270 averages in the Cardinal lineup to go along with a ton of home runs, but if there is one thing the Baseball Writers Association of America has taught us it's that a .250 average, 50 HRs and 200 Ks is close to being worthy of an MVP award.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Aaron Hicks, Blake Beavan

After reading the title of this thread you might be thinking to yourself "doesn't this post belong in The Sports Rag blog?" Well what these two players have in common has a lot to do with the Cardinals. More specifically their draft strategy.

For those who don't know, Blake Beavan was selected by the Texas Rangers in the 1st round of the 2007 draft. He was taken one pick before the Cardinals selected Peter Kozma. Aaron Hicks was selected by the Minnesota Twins in the 1st round of the 2008 daft. He was taken one pick after the Cardinals selected Brett Wallace. Both players were high school draftees.

With the college season and soon the high school season getting under way, much discussion about the 2009 draft has begun. With the 19th pick, the Cardinals once again have a good opportunity to add a quality player to their farm system. However, there are many wondering which direction the Cardinals will go and if that direction will lead them to the best available prospect.

I have seen many folks predicting Mike Leake, a RHP from Arizona State, or Mike Minor, a LHP from Vanderbilt, to be a likely selection. Those who make this prediction sight the low risk associated with both players and most off all their college standing as appealing to the Cards. Mainly because they have tended to put a higher value on these types of players than riskier, more rewarding players in past drafts.

While I would agree that Leake and Minor could very well be high on the Cardinals draft board come June, a recent quote from Derrick Goold's Birdland blog has me questioning whether or not I really have any clue what the Cardinals will do in the 2009 draft. Here's the quote:
"Four of the players picked ahead of Wallace ranked behind Wallace on the Top 100, and the only player to leapfrog him from the draft — Hicks — was the Cardinals’ fallback pick at No. 13 if Wallace went a few spots earlier, like to Oakland."

This may have been said a short time after the 2008 draft, and I think it was, but as long as it is being brought up again I just want to point out that the Cardinals would have taken Aaron Hicks, the raw outfielder from a California high school, with the 13th pick had Brett Wallace not been there. Interesting indeed.

This was actually the second time in as many years that the Cardinals had mentioned that they would have taken a high school player had they been at the top of their board of remaining draft prospects. Following the 2007 draft, a member of the Cardinals staff said that they were ready to take Blake Beavan in the 1st round until the Rangers took him. The Birds did wind up taking a high school player but it was one who was said to be polished and a fairly safe high school selection.

So in the past two drafts the Cardinals were fully prepared to select the always risky high school pitcher and a raw, toolsy prep star.

All of the sudden I'm befuddled. I can see the Cardinals going after Beavan if they were to go after a high school pitcher in the past. He had a good fastball and threw strikes. Many saw him at least being a reliever if he couldn't improve his offspeed stuff. So the risk factor wasn't as high as you might expect for a high school arm but he wasn't a totally polished pitcher and some had some questions about his mechanics.
To hear that Aaron Hicks was the backup option in the 2008 draft, though, is very surprising. Many considered Hicks to be a raw talent. In fact some teams, and the Cardinals may have been included, liked him more on the mound where he had some trouble with command but flashed two plus pitches. Either way, Hicks was far from the usual 1st round selection the Cardinals have made since Jeff Luhnow took over.

So as you put together your list for who you want the Cardinals to take with the 19th pick, I ask that you remember Aaron Hicks and Blake Beavan and don't be afraid to hope for the selection to be Jacob Turner or Keyvius Sampson, a pair of high ceiling, high school right-handers. Well as long as they are still on the board and worth the pick(and not asking for over slot money...oops).
The fact that Beavan and Hicks were both almost Cardinals tells us that Jeff Luhnow is not afraid to go after the raw and risky high school player early on in the draft.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Just Sign Will Ohman!

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com has recently said that lefty reliever Will Ohman probably won't be getting more than 1 million this year. 1 million! And the Cardinals spent 475K on Royce Ring? AAAHHHH!

Ohman might just be the missing piece to a very good Cardinal ballclub(assuming a healthy Carpenter). Obtaining an experienced closer might be more important than a true #1 lefty reliever but at least the Cardinals have plenty of talented pitchers that can get 3 outs in the 9th inning. What they have from the leftside in the pen is questionable after Trever Miller.

What is great about Ohman is that he hasn't just good against left handed batters in his career: .197 BAA, 43 BB-124 K in 390 ABs, he also does a decent job against right handed batters: .262, 63 BB-95 K IN 443 ABs. And most of the damage done against him by righties was done in 2007.

Another thing Ohman does well is not allow inheirited runners to score. Even in a flukish down year in 2007, Ohman was 19th in baseball allowing just 7 of 37 runners to score. Through early August 2008(couldn't find full season numbers), Ohman had allowed just 2 of 20 inheirited runners to score.

Having a nice combo of Ohman-Miller in the pen would be a wonderful strength for LaRussa to have. Perhaps the bigger reason to get Ohman would be to have someone who can still be a go to lefty in case Miller's shoulder starts to ache. No one wants to see LaRussa calling on Charlie Manning and Royce Ring in the same game.

Here's hoping Ring, Ostlund and Manning struggle in spring training! Sorry fellas, I want Ohman.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Where the Rotation Ends

I think its a widely held belief among Cardinal fans that as long as Chris Carpenter makes even 25 starts this year, the Cardinals are going to be in great shape. As we saw last year, Carpenter still possesses a Cy Young caliber arm and could provide the Cardinals with an opportunity for victory, aka quality start, in 70% of the games he starts.
From 2004 to 2006, Carpenter threw 64 quality starts in 93 games started which equates to a 69% QS percentage. Saying he makes 30 starts, Carp should provide the Birds with about 21 quality starts. Braden Looper gave the Cards 15 in 33 games last year.

Even under the assumption that Carpenter does stay healthy, there is still a surprising many that express concern about the rotation. All of which is directed at Joel Pineiro being the 5th starter.
Now, I've had my concerns about Pineiro in the rotation but it is all because of the better than slim chance that he could be the #4 starter with Kyle McClellan/Mitch Boggs/Clayton Mortensen in the 5th spot. In that situation you are suddenly looking at three strong chances for a victory instead of four each time through the rotation. But assuming that Carpenter is healthy, I see no reason to worry.

If there is one thing history has taught us it is that a quality 5th starter is more of a luxury than a necessity. Take a look at who has brought up the rear of the rotation for the last 5 World Series winners:
-Adam Eaton (Philadelphia): 4-8, 5.80 ERA, 107 INN, 19 GS
-Tim Wakefield (Boston): 17-12, 4.78 ERA, 189 INN, 31 GS
-Mark Mulder (St. Louis): 6-7, 7.14 ERA, 93.3 INN, 17 GS
-Orlando Hernandez (Chicago): 9-9, 5.12 ERA, 128.3 INN, 22 GS
-Derek Lowe (Boston): 12-12, 5.42 ERA, 182.7 INN, 33 GS

It would seem that having a strong 4 man rotation, like the Cardinals could have if Carpenter stays healthy, is going to be good enough.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Cardinals Mount Rushmore


That was easy.
P.S. DeWitt = Stud. I mean just look at him.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Ryan Franklin in the Rotation?

Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper both made the transition from long time reliever to starting pitcher. Kyle McClellan is about to make the switch to the rotation this spring. Joel Pineiro even spent some time in the Red Sox' and Mariners' bullpen before returning to the rotation.

It seems that a lot of relievers are getting the opportunity to start for the Cardinals. Ryan Franklin, however, has not gotten that opportunity and I ask why?

In 2003, Franklin posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 210 innings with the Seattle Mariners. Now that was with the aid of steriods but in the past two years he's been doing a pretty decent to good job in the bullpen without steroids(we can only assume) after struggling for a few years. His career path is somewhat similar to Pineiro's and Franklin's numbers in the bullpen are very similar to Braden Looper's.

Here is a comparison of Looper's final season in relief in 2006 to Franklin's 2008 season:
Looper: 3.56 ERA, 69 G, 73.1 INN, 76 H, 20 BB, 41 K, 1.31 WHIP, 125 ERA+
Franklin: 3.55 ERA, 74 G, 78.2 INN, 86 H, 30 BB, 51 K, 1.47 WHIP, 120 ERA+

As you can see, the numbers are close in a lot of areas. And really they are pretty identical pitchers. They don't overpower anyone, they'll make you put the ball in play, they will throw a lot of strikes- although Franklin issued 19 more BBs in 2008 than he did in 2007- and as a reliever they will eat innings if needed. They aren't ROOGYs.

One important factor that works in Franklin's favor in making a possible move back to the rotation, besides good size, a history of starting and the ability to throw a lot of strikes, is that he employs the use of about 6-8 different pitches. One thing that you hear often is that starting pitchers need deep repertoires in order to keep hitters off balance three times through the lineup. Franklin may have the deepest repertoire of any Cardinal pitcher. And as I mentioned earlier, he throws a lot of those pitches for strikes.

Looking back to the 2006-2007 offseason and this offseason, I'm surprised Duncan and LaRussa didn't give Ryan Franklin an opportunity to start in spring training. We needed starters going into 2007 and they did try Looper in the rotation. In 2008, I can understand wanting to keep him in the pen because he was so good in the 8th inning the year before. So you didn't want to mess with a really good thing. Now, though, he's coming off an average season and the Cardinals are moving another reliever, McClellan, to the rotation. I just wonder what the final reasoning was behind not ever giving a former solid starter another shot at the rotation.

It appears the last time Franklin got a shot at the rotation was in 2006 spring training with Philadelphia and he did well: 3.37 ERA, 18.2 INN, 17 H, 6 BB, 14 K. He wound up in the Phillies bullpen, though.

I'll leave you with a question: Would you like to see Ryan Franklin compete with Joel Pineiro and Kyle McClellan for the 5th spot in the rotation? Personally speaking, I wouldn't mind it. Especially after watching Braden Looper do well as a back end starter.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Another Fallen Kennedy

This time it is more of a joyous occasion than a somber one.

One day after I did some wondering about who might get the majority of the ABs at 2nd base between Skip Schumaker and Adam Kennedy, the Cardinals released the 33 year old Kennedy according to Matt Leach and Joe Strauss.

Where do the Cardinals go from here at 2nd base?

Right now there about 6 options:
1)Skip Schumaker: He still needs to prove he can handle the position defensively because infield defense is a key with the rotation the Cards have. If he proves he's adequate in the field, he should get the majority of the at bats against right handed pitchers and probably even quite a few against southpaws. Lineup cards with Schumaker and Rasmus continue to dance around in my dreams.

2)Joe Thurston: Can the Cardinals strike minor league free agent gold yet again? Thurston was the Dodgers top prospect years ago and has never really gotten much of a chance in the big leagues. He hit .316 with 11 HR, an .823 OPS and stole 19 bases in AAA Pawtucket last season and he plays decent defense. You really have to wonder what has been going on with Thurston that he couldn't get more than 18 ABs in any big league season. His AAA numbers have always been steady to superb.

3)Brian Barden: No one might have a better chance at winning the utility job than Barden although I do think the Cardinals are pretty high on Thurston. What helps Barden is that he has played all over the infield although only 87 games at second. His bat could do a lot of the talking in spring training and his defense might be just be good enough to beat out the rest.

4)Brendan Ryan: In 2007, Ryan appeared to be the long term solution at 2nd base or shortstop for the Cardinals. However, in 2008 he suffered a Bo Hart like fall. Personally speaking, I was not a very big fan of Ryan coming up through the minors and I was very surprised by his performance in 2007. So I don't have tons of faith in Ryan returning to 07 form. It is certainly possible that Ryan can prove me wrong, though. He makes plenty of contact, runs well and plays solid defense except at 3rd.

5)Tyler Greene: The former 2005 first rounder is a longshot because of his struggles against the breaking stuff. His power/speed/defense trio is very intriguing, though, and he adds versatility as well. If he doesn't have a good spring and make the team out of camp, its very possible that he will be up sometime in 2009 if he can leave a positive impression on TLR. That is unless Thurston, Ryan or whoever is the righthanded complement to Schumaker performs well in the bigs.

6)Jarrett Hoffpauir: The Hoff is another longshot in the race for the utility infielder job. He is coming off a so-so year in AAA after hitting .273 average with a .383 slugging percentage. On the plus side he continued to draw more BBs than Ks, something he has done at every level of pro and college ball, and overall posted a .353 OBP. What really hurts Hoffpauir's chances is that he has played just 11 games at SS and 3B combined so he's not very versatile, and he also is just average defensively at second. His bat will have to do the impressing in spring training to win a job on the big league bench. But it also hurts that in 3 of the past 4 seasons, Hoffpauir has hit below .245 against lefties.

The options to platoon with Kennedy aren't fantastic but the good news is that there are a lot of decent candidates.
I doubt Mozeliak will go after a free agent 2nd baseman. There are already plenty of options on the 40 man roster and adding an Orlando Hudson or Ray Durham will cause a major jam in Memphis. Although I think most fans wouldn't mind it if Hudson were a Cardinal.
Hopefully someone will step up this year, win the job and help win some ballgames.

Getting back to Kennedy, the Cardinals decision to release the 1997 1st rounder more than likely came after they tried every option to trade him. Looking back, Mozeliak supposedly had the D'Backs ready to eat about a million or so of his salary but Mo said no. I'm guessing he was hoping he could find someone willing to take on a little more of Kennedy's contract later on in the offseason.

Releasing Kennedy was probably the right move, despite having to eat 4 million. We all know he was upset with his playing time last year and with Schumaker moving to 2nd base, it was likely he wasn't going to be getting anymore ABs than he recieved in 2008.

As Kennedy's time in St. Louis comes to an end, I will always try to remember his Cardinal days by one at bat: the pinch hit game tying RBI double off Jon Papelbon with 2 outs in the 9th in Fenway on June 22, 2008. Even though the Cardinals went on to lose the game, that hit was the greatest moment of the year. Anyone who shuts up Papelbon is ok in my book.
I'll probably also remember the fact that he and Bottenfield fetched us some guy named Edmonds.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Schumaker to 2nd Base!!??

I believe John Mozeliak has mentioned it a couple of times before but Matt Leach of mlb.com recently reported that the Cardinals will be trying out Skip Schumaker at 2nd base in spring training. For many, this is a fantasy come true. We can now dream of a top of the lineup like this:

1: Skip Schumaker-2B
2: Colby Rasmus-CF

And not be laughed at....well, hopefully.
Schumaker still has to prove he can actually handle the position and Rasmus needs to beat out Chris Duncan for a spot in the outfield(sadly, I don't think I'm joking) but the possibility is exciting.

The one question that really needs to be asked is who, between Kennedy and Schumaker, will bat against lefties?

Kennedy posted a nice average against lefties last season(.270) but his other numbers weren't good at all: .299 OBP, .297 SLG
And check out Kennedy's last two seasons against southpaws:
2007: .122/.200/.195 in 41 ABs
2006: .193/.256/.277 in 83 ABs

Small sample sizes, yes. But I think there is a reason for that. Kennedy is only a singles hitter and not a very good singles hitter against left handers.

Now lets see what Schumaker did against guys who throw with the wrong arm last year:
.168/.238/.185, 2 extra base hits in 119 ABs

Either the Cardinals are putting a lot of stock into what Schumaker did in 2007 against southpaws in a really small sample size(9 for 24) or they are hoping Kennedy finds the magic he had against lefties in 2004(.720 OPS) and 2005(.296 avg, .684 OPS).
Or perhaps they are hoping Bo Hart errr...I mean Brendan Ryan can get over a very poor 2008 season and hit like he did in 2007. Or maybe Joe Thurston is the next Brandon Phillips. What do you say, Joe? You think you got it in ya?

There is no doubt moving Schumaker to second base is going to be a great move on most nights. The guy kills right handers and having both he and Rasmus in a lineup against righties will give us a great, deep lineup.

I'm just wondering which 2nd baseman will draw the short stick and get the majority of the ABs against left handers. I have to believe whoever it is will be a major downgrade from Aaron Miles who hit .315 with a .755 OPS against lefties last season.

Also, I'm wondering if taking Schumaker out of the lineup against right handers on some nights, perhaps a lot of nights if Rasmus does indeed earn a spot in spring training(otherwise inset Duncan's name) will be that beneficial. I'd have to imagine TLR won't give Kennedy the complete shaft and not let him play against right handers and since Rasmus and Ankiel are lefty swingers and Ludwick crushes righties, Schumaker will find himself on the bench a lot more when the Cardinals are facing his favorite kind of pitcher.

Shifting Schumaker to 2nd base should be a move that will get the most out of our resources against righthander pitchers.
But when you look at it, moving Schumaker to 2nd base might not be the best move for getting the most out of him or putting a better lineup on the field against lefthanders than what we had in 2008. Mainly because of Aaron Miles' absence.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Disaster Averted - Looking Back at a Possible Matt Holliday Trade

The first big name to pop up on team's trade radars this winter was former Colorado Rockies' OF Matt Holliday. Among the teams involved in the Holliday sweepstakes were the Oakland A's, who wound up the winner, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals.

Before I really delve deep into this topic, I'd like to thank Cardinals GM John Mozeliak for at least pursuing Holliday. It is nice to know that he put in a lot of effort in trying to get one of the better players in baseball. He didn't get his man, but as I will soon point out, that is probably a very good thing.

Let's first take a look at what the Oakland A's gave up to acquire one certain year of Matt Holliday:
-Carlos Gonzalez: Potential middle of the order hitter and top prospect. Big name going to Oakland in the Dan Haren trade.
-Greg Smith: Solid #3-4 major league starter, also a big part of the Dan Haren deal.
-Huston Street: Decent closer who had a rough 2008 season blowing more than a few saves. Overall, though, his numbers weren't bad at all.

The Athletics gave up a ton and the Rockies got exactly what they wanted. Gonzalez and Smith are under the Rockies' control for 6 and 5 more years, respectively. Street has 2 more years of arbitration and acquiring him allowed the Rockies to let Brian Fuentes go for 2 draft picks.

Billy Beane pretty much pulled the opposite of every trade he has ever made by giving up 3 good young players for 1 year of a superstar.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals and Rockies were discussing a deal that would have sent Holliday to the Cardinals for Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker and Mitchell Boggs.
Compared to what Oakland gave up, that isn't a tough deal to swallow and I wouldn't be surprised if Schumaker wasn't in the final discussion and Chris Perez was but that is neither here nor there.

There are two reasons why the Cardinals just missed disaster with this trade:
1)Giving up 3 cheaper years of Ludwick, 4 of Schumaker and 6 of Boggs
2)Future contract extension for Matt Holliday

I really don't want to mention the fact that Holliday isn't an elite hitter away from Coors Field because Ryan Ludwick has his question marks too as he's been a one year wonder up to this point. It is up to one's opinion on how good he'll be next season.

For the sake of fair discussion I'll take the middle ground and say both are the same hitters next year as they were this year. Although I think the only reason why Mozeliak was strongly considering this was because he wasn't as certain about Ludwick's future. But I can't predict a serious regression for Ludwick in 2009 because there isn't overwhelming support to back the notion up.

Anyways(I feel like I'm talking too much), the main point of this post was to look at Matt Holliday's future contract extension.

I want to use a comparable player to Holliday to help us predict a future contract for the slugger. See if you can guess who's 162 game average season this is:
.290/.378/.552, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 79 BB, 122 K, 2 SB, 40 2B, 2 3B

If you guessed Mark Teixeira, you'd be right.

Now compare it to Holliday's average 162 game season:
.319/.386/.552, 30 HR, 112 RBI, 58 BB, 117 K, 15 SB, 44 2B, 5 3B

Not far off.

Texeira recently signed an 8 year, 180 million contract with the New York Yankees.

I'd have to imagine that if Holliday has a strong 2009 season, he'll want a comparable contract to what Texeira signed. For some teams that isn't a big negative. For the Cardinals, it is.

Almost every Cardinal fan's biggest fear is the day Albert Pujols puts on another team's uniform. With Matt Holliday making 20 million a year, it isn't difficult to see the Cardinals struggling to re-sign Pujols.

Could the Cardinals afford to have both a 7-8 year, 150-170 million contract for Holliday and a 8-9 year, 180-200 million contract for Pujols on the books?
Also consider Adam Wainwright will be making 10-12 million in 2011 and 2012 and becoming a free agent after 2013. You're talking about 50-55 million locked up in the three players in 2014.
60-65 million in 4 players when you consider Kyle Lohse's new contract although that'd be just for 2012 as Lohse is a free agent after that season.
Add in Holliday's 20 million into the 2010 and 2011 payrolls and you're talking about 51 million or so for him, Pujols and Carpenter.

Signing Holliday to the extension he is going to be asking for, and probably recieving if he gets to free agency, will severely handcuff the Cardinals in future years if their farm system doesn't produce like we hope it will.
Even if it does produce several good players, Bill DeWitt would have to bump his payroll up to around 120 million for the team to have some breathing room.

Perhaps losing Pujols wouldn't be so tough to swallow with Holliday and possible 1st base replacement Brett Wallace on the team but I doubt it. There isn't a player like Pujols in the game today and losing him would be a huge blow to the Cardinals.

Braden Looper is the Answer

When most people discuss the potential of the 2009 Cardinals, much of the talk revolves around what will transpire in the starting rotation.

Taking a look at the Cardinals projected 2009 rotation...

1: Adam Wainwright
2: Kyle Lohse
3: Todd Wellemeyer
4: Joel Pineiro
5: Chris Carpenter

...I see some uncertainty at the back end.

You have Joel Pineiro in the 4th spot and no one is really sure what he'll give you. He's not an awful pitcher. Sometimes(often times), though, he doesn't bring his best stuff to the park with him. I don't think he is a terrible 5th starter but he isn't going to be a difference maker in most of his starts.
In the 5th spot, and really he'd be the ace IF he is healthy, is Chris Carpenter. Right now, the medical reports all look good. Of course we've heard that numerous times before only to see a recovering player suffer a serious setback. There are two things that could happen this year:
1) Carpenter stays healthy, pitches like he did last year, which is to say great, and gives the Cardinals anywhere from 15 to 20 wins and a great shot to win the Central division.

or

2) Carpenter gets hurt in Spring Training, makes anywhere from 0 to 7 starts in 2009 and the Cardinals rely on Mitch Boggs/Kyle McClellan/Jess Todd/etc to fill in behind Joel Pineiro.

100% of Cardinal fans are hoping for option 1. And really if you are a baseball fan, you should be hoping for option 1 as well. Watching a healthy Chris Carpenter pitch is a treat. He is one of the best pitchers in the game today.

Unfortunately, option 2 could be more likely to happen. It has been two years since Carp made it through a full season and he has had both elbow and unprecedented shoulder problems in those two years.
If you are the Cardinals, I don't understand why you wouldn't want to guard against option 2 to an extent. Obviously the only way to fully guard against it would be to acquire Jake Peavy and the Cardinals just DON'T need to do that. But why not get a guy who you can slot into the 4th/5th spot and get 180+ innings of quality pitching?

This is where Braden Looper comes in.

Not many pitchers improved more than Looper did over the past two seasons:
2007: 12-12, 4.94 ERA, 175 INN, 183 H, 51 BB, 87 K, 89 ERA+
2008: 12-14, 4.12 ERA, 199 INN, 216 H, 45 BB, 108 K, 102 ERA+

One of Looper's underrated strengths is his dominance against the Chicago Cubs as a starter:
2-4, 2.42 ERA, 52 INN, 46 H, 14 ER, 13 BB, 35 K, 8 starts

No team has given the Cardinals more fits lately than the Cubs, who currently projects to be the top team in the Central division. Looper's record against the Cubs is less than spectacular but that is more on the bullpen and offense than Looper. Having a guy that can pitch 3-4 strong games against the Cubs is a huge plus.

The only downside to signing Looper is that if Carpenter and everyone else does stay healthy then the Cardinals will have to almost bite the bullet on Joel Pineiro's 7.5 million by sending him to the bullpen to be a long reliever.
Some might consider good rotation depth to be a strength, though.

Management has consistently said that the payroll should be right around 100 million and that they don't want to pour more money into the rotation. But I just don't understand where else they are going to spend the extra 10 million or so that is available.
They won't eat Kennedy's contract which would open up the possibility of Orlando Hudson signing in St. Louis. All of the closers are off the board and the Cardinals have already signed 3 lefty relievers. Strengthening the rotation is pretty much the only option left.

I strongly believe John Mozeliak knows that the Cardinals rotation could be a serious mess before the season even starts and I believe he has Looper's number on his speed dial. I just wish he'd call him now while the Cardinals have the upper hand in potential contract negotiations instead of when they desperately need his services.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Leaving the Nest

Congratulations on finding this blog devoted to the St. Louis Cardinals. You are one of the lucky ones.

Within this blog we will discuss anything dealing with the Cardinals both at the major league and minor league levels.