Where the Rotation Ends

I think its a widely held belief among Cardinal fans that as long as Chris Carpenter makes even 25 starts this year, the Cardinals are going to be in great shape. As we saw last year, Carpenter still possesses a Cy Young caliber arm and could provide the Cardinals with an opportunity for victory, aka quality start, in 70% of the games he starts.
From 2004 to 2006, Carpenter threw 64 quality starts in 93 games started which equates to a 69% QS percentage. Saying he makes 30 starts, Carp should provide the Birds with about 21 quality starts. Braden Looper gave the Cards 15 in 33 games last year.

Even under the assumption that Carpenter does stay healthy, there is still a surprising many that express concern about the rotation. All of which is directed at Joel Pineiro being the 5th starter.
Now, I've had my concerns about Pineiro in the rotation but it is all because of the better than slim chance that he could be the #4 starter with Kyle McClellan/Mitch Boggs/Clayton Mortensen in the 5th spot. In that situation you are suddenly looking at three strong chances for a victory instead of four each time through the rotation. But assuming that Carpenter is healthy, I see no reason to worry.

If there is one thing history has taught us it is that a quality 5th starter is more of a luxury than a necessity. Take a look at who has brought up the rear of the rotation for the last 5 World Series winners:
-Adam Eaton (Philadelphia): 4-8, 5.80 ERA, 107 INN, 19 GS
-Tim Wakefield (Boston): 17-12, 4.78 ERA, 189 INN, 31 GS
-Mark Mulder (St. Louis): 6-7, 7.14 ERA, 93.3 INN, 17 GS
-Orlando Hernandez (Chicago): 9-9, 5.12 ERA, 128.3 INN, 22 GS
-Derek Lowe (Boston): 12-12, 5.42 ERA, 182.7 INN, 33 GS

It would seem that having a strong 4 man rotation, like the Cardinals could have if Carpenter stays healthy, is going to be good enough.