Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Just Sign Will Ohman!

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com has recently said that lefty reliever Will Ohman probably won't be getting more than 1 million this year. 1 million! And the Cardinals spent 475K on Royce Ring? AAAHHHH!

Ohman might just be the missing piece to a very good Cardinal ballclub(assuming a healthy Carpenter). Obtaining an experienced closer might be more important than a true #1 lefty reliever but at least the Cardinals have plenty of talented pitchers that can get 3 outs in the 9th inning. What they have from the leftside in the pen is questionable after Trever Miller.

What is great about Ohman is that he hasn't just good against left handed batters in his career: .197 BAA, 43 BB-124 K in 390 ABs, he also does a decent job against right handed batters: .262, 63 BB-95 K IN 443 ABs. And most of the damage done against him by righties was done in 2007.

Another thing Ohman does well is not allow inheirited runners to score. Even in a flukish down year in 2007, Ohman was 19th in baseball allowing just 7 of 37 runners to score. Through early August 2008(couldn't find full season numbers), Ohman had allowed just 2 of 20 inheirited runners to score.

Having a nice combo of Ohman-Miller in the pen would be a wonderful strength for LaRussa to have. Perhaps the bigger reason to get Ohman would be to have someone who can still be a go to lefty in case Miller's shoulder starts to ache. No one wants to see LaRussa calling on Charlie Manning and Royce Ring in the same game.

Here's hoping Ring, Ostlund and Manning struggle in spring training! Sorry fellas, I want Ohman.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Where the Rotation Ends

I think its a widely held belief among Cardinal fans that as long as Chris Carpenter makes even 25 starts this year, the Cardinals are going to be in great shape. As we saw last year, Carpenter still possesses a Cy Young caliber arm and could provide the Cardinals with an opportunity for victory, aka quality start, in 70% of the games he starts.
From 2004 to 2006, Carpenter threw 64 quality starts in 93 games started which equates to a 69% QS percentage. Saying he makes 30 starts, Carp should provide the Birds with about 21 quality starts. Braden Looper gave the Cards 15 in 33 games last year.

Even under the assumption that Carpenter does stay healthy, there is still a surprising many that express concern about the rotation. All of which is directed at Joel Pineiro being the 5th starter.
Now, I've had my concerns about Pineiro in the rotation but it is all because of the better than slim chance that he could be the #4 starter with Kyle McClellan/Mitch Boggs/Clayton Mortensen in the 5th spot. In that situation you are suddenly looking at three strong chances for a victory instead of four each time through the rotation. But assuming that Carpenter is healthy, I see no reason to worry.

If there is one thing history has taught us it is that a quality 5th starter is more of a luxury than a necessity. Take a look at who has brought up the rear of the rotation for the last 5 World Series winners:
-Adam Eaton (Philadelphia): 4-8, 5.80 ERA, 107 INN, 19 GS
-Tim Wakefield (Boston): 17-12, 4.78 ERA, 189 INN, 31 GS
-Mark Mulder (St. Louis): 6-7, 7.14 ERA, 93.3 INN, 17 GS
-Orlando Hernandez (Chicago): 9-9, 5.12 ERA, 128.3 INN, 22 GS
-Derek Lowe (Boston): 12-12, 5.42 ERA, 182.7 INN, 33 GS

It would seem that having a strong 4 man rotation, like the Cardinals could have if Carpenter stays healthy, is going to be good enough.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Cardinals Mount Rushmore


That was easy.
P.S. DeWitt = Stud. I mean just look at him.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Ryan Franklin in the Rotation?

Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper both made the transition from long time reliever to starting pitcher. Kyle McClellan is about to make the switch to the rotation this spring. Joel Pineiro even spent some time in the Red Sox' and Mariners' bullpen before returning to the rotation.

It seems that a lot of relievers are getting the opportunity to start for the Cardinals. Ryan Franklin, however, has not gotten that opportunity and I ask why?

In 2003, Franklin posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 210 innings with the Seattle Mariners. Now that was with the aid of steriods but in the past two years he's been doing a pretty decent to good job in the bullpen without steroids(we can only assume) after struggling for a few years. His career path is somewhat similar to Pineiro's and Franklin's numbers in the bullpen are very similar to Braden Looper's.

Here is a comparison of Looper's final season in relief in 2006 to Franklin's 2008 season:
Looper: 3.56 ERA, 69 G, 73.1 INN, 76 H, 20 BB, 41 K, 1.31 WHIP, 125 ERA+
Franklin: 3.55 ERA, 74 G, 78.2 INN, 86 H, 30 BB, 51 K, 1.47 WHIP, 120 ERA+

As you can see, the numbers are close in a lot of areas. And really they are pretty identical pitchers. They don't overpower anyone, they'll make you put the ball in play, they will throw a lot of strikes- although Franklin issued 19 more BBs in 2008 than he did in 2007- and as a reliever they will eat innings if needed. They aren't ROOGYs.

One important factor that works in Franklin's favor in making a possible move back to the rotation, besides good size, a history of starting and the ability to throw a lot of strikes, is that he employs the use of about 6-8 different pitches. One thing that you hear often is that starting pitchers need deep repertoires in order to keep hitters off balance three times through the lineup. Franklin may have the deepest repertoire of any Cardinal pitcher. And as I mentioned earlier, he throws a lot of those pitches for strikes.

Looking back to the 2006-2007 offseason and this offseason, I'm surprised Duncan and LaRussa didn't give Ryan Franklin an opportunity to start in spring training. We needed starters going into 2007 and they did try Looper in the rotation. In 2008, I can understand wanting to keep him in the pen because he was so good in the 8th inning the year before. So you didn't want to mess with a really good thing. Now, though, he's coming off an average season and the Cardinals are moving another reliever, McClellan, to the rotation. I just wonder what the final reasoning was behind not ever giving a former solid starter another shot at the rotation.

It appears the last time Franklin got a shot at the rotation was in 2006 spring training with Philadelphia and he did well: 3.37 ERA, 18.2 INN, 17 H, 6 BB, 14 K. He wound up in the Phillies bullpen, though.

I'll leave you with a question: Would you like to see Ryan Franklin compete with Joel Pineiro and Kyle McClellan for the 5th spot in the rotation? Personally speaking, I wouldn't mind it. Especially after watching Braden Looper do well as a back end starter.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Another Fallen Kennedy

This time it is more of a joyous occasion than a somber one.

One day after I did some wondering about who might get the majority of the ABs at 2nd base between Skip Schumaker and Adam Kennedy, the Cardinals released the 33 year old Kennedy according to Matt Leach and Joe Strauss.

Where do the Cardinals go from here at 2nd base?

Right now there about 6 options:
1)Skip Schumaker: He still needs to prove he can handle the position defensively because infield defense is a key with the rotation the Cards have. If he proves he's adequate in the field, he should get the majority of the at bats against right handed pitchers and probably even quite a few against southpaws. Lineup cards with Schumaker and Rasmus continue to dance around in my dreams.

2)Joe Thurston: Can the Cardinals strike minor league free agent gold yet again? Thurston was the Dodgers top prospect years ago and has never really gotten much of a chance in the big leagues. He hit .316 with 11 HR, an .823 OPS and stole 19 bases in AAA Pawtucket last season and he plays decent defense. You really have to wonder what has been going on with Thurston that he couldn't get more than 18 ABs in any big league season. His AAA numbers have always been steady to superb.

3)Brian Barden: No one might have a better chance at winning the utility job than Barden although I do think the Cardinals are pretty high on Thurston. What helps Barden is that he has played all over the infield although only 87 games at second. His bat could do a lot of the talking in spring training and his defense might be just be good enough to beat out the rest.

4)Brendan Ryan: In 2007, Ryan appeared to be the long term solution at 2nd base or shortstop for the Cardinals. However, in 2008 he suffered a Bo Hart like fall. Personally speaking, I was not a very big fan of Ryan coming up through the minors and I was very surprised by his performance in 2007. So I don't have tons of faith in Ryan returning to 07 form. It is certainly possible that Ryan can prove me wrong, though. He makes plenty of contact, runs well and plays solid defense except at 3rd.

5)Tyler Greene: The former 2005 first rounder is a longshot because of his struggles against the breaking stuff. His power/speed/defense trio is very intriguing, though, and he adds versatility as well. If he doesn't have a good spring and make the team out of camp, its very possible that he will be up sometime in 2009 if he can leave a positive impression on TLR. That is unless Thurston, Ryan or whoever is the righthanded complement to Schumaker performs well in the bigs.

6)Jarrett Hoffpauir: The Hoff is another longshot in the race for the utility infielder job. He is coming off a so-so year in AAA after hitting .273 average with a .383 slugging percentage. On the plus side he continued to draw more BBs than Ks, something he has done at every level of pro and college ball, and overall posted a .353 OBP. What really hurts Hoffpauir's chances is that he has played just 11 games at SS and 3B combined so he's not very versatile, and he also is just average defensively at second. His bat will have to do the impressing in spring training to win a job on the big league bench. But it also hurts that in 3 of the past 4 seasons, Hoffpauir has hit below .245 against lefties.

The options to platoon with Kennedy aren't fantastic but the good news is that there are a lot of decent candidates.
I doubt Mozeliak will go after a free agent 2nd baseman. There are already plenty of options on the 40 man roster and adding an Orlando Hudson or Ray Durham will cause a major jam in Memphis. Although I think most fans wouldn't mind it if Hudson were a Cardinal.
Hopefully someone will step up this year, win the job and help win some ballgames.

Getting back to Kennedy, the Cardinals decision to release the 1997 1st rounder more than likely came after they tried every option to trade him. Looking back, Mozeliak supposedly had the D'Backs ready to eat about a million or so of his salary but Mo said no. I'm guessing he was hoping he could find someone willing to take on a little more of Kennedy's contract later on in the offseason.

Releasing Kennedy was probably the right move, despite having to eat 4 million. We all know he was upset with his playing time last year and with Schumaker moving to 2nd base, it was likely he wasn't going to be getting anymore ABs than he recieved in 2008.

As Kennedy's time in St. Louis comes to an end, I will always try to remember his Cardinal days by one at bat: the pinch hit game tying RBI double off Jon Papelbon with 2 outs in the 9th in Fenway on June 22, 2008. Even though the Cardinals went on to lose the game, that hit was the greatest moment of the year. Anyone who shuts up Papelbon is ok in my book.
I'll probably also remember the fact that he and Bottenfield fetched us some guy named Edmonds.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Schumaker to 2nd Base!!??

I believe John Mozeliak has mentioned it a couple of times before but Matt Leach of mlb.com recently reported that the Cardinals will be trying out Skip Schumaker at 2nd base in spring training. For many, this is a fantasy come true. We can now dream of a top of the lineup like this:

1: Skip Schumaker-2B
2: Colby Rasmus-CF

And not be laughed at....well, hopefully.
Schumaker still has to prove he can actually handle the position and Rasmus needs to beat out Chris Duncan for a spot in the outfield(sadly, I don't think I'm joking) but the possibility is exciting.

The one question that really needs to be asked is who, between Kennedy and Schumaker, will bat against lefties?

Kennedy posted a nice average against lefties last season(.270) but his other numbers weren't good at all: .299 OBP, .297 SLG
And check out Kennedy's last two seasons against southpaws:
2007: .122/.200/.195 in 41 ABs
2006: .193/.256/.277 in 83 ABs

Small sample sizes, yes. But I think there is a reason for that. Kennedy is only a singles hitter and not a very good singles hitter against left handers.

Now lets see what Schumaker did against guys who throw with the wrong arm last year:
.168/.238/.185, 2 extra base hits in 119 ABs

Either the Cardinals are putting a lot of stock into what Schumaker did in 2007 against southpaws in a really small sample size(9 for 24) or they are hoping Kennedy finds the magic he had against lefties in 2004(.720 OPS) and 2005(.296 avg, .684 OPS).
Or perhaps they are hoping Bo Hart errr...I mean Brendan Ryan can get over a very poor 2008 season and hit like he did in 2007. Or maybe Joe Thurston is the next Brandon Phillips. What do you say, Joe? You think you got it in ya?

There is no doubt moving Schumaker to second base is going to be a great move on most nights. The guy kills right handers and having both he and Rasmus in a lineup against righties will give us a great, deep lineup.

I'm just wondering which 2nd baseman will draw the short stick and get the majority of the ABs against left handers. I have to believe whoever it is will be a major downgrade from Aaron Miles who hit .315 with a .755 OPS against lefties last season.

Also, I'm wondering if taking Schumaker out of the lineup against right handers on some nights, perhaps a lot of nights if Rasmus does indeed earn a spot in spring training(otherwise inset Duncan's name) will be that beneficial. I'd have to imagine TLR won't give Kennedy the complete shaft and not let him play against right handers and since Rasmus and Ankiel are lefty swingers and Ludwick crushes righties, Schumaker will find himself on the bench a lot more when the Cardinals are facing his favorite kind of pitcher.

Shifting Schumaker to 2nd base should be a move that will get the most out of our resources against righthander pitchers.
But when you look at it, moving Schumaker to 2nd base might not be the best move for getting the most out of him or putting a better lineup on the field against lefthanders than what we had in 2008. Mainly because of Aaron Miles' absence.